Tag Archives: Boehner

Harry’s Math Problem OR, Why Harry Reid might lose a little sleep this time around

Seems like every day we read breathless articles about angst and remorse in the Republican party, and how civil war may be about to break out. Will they lose the House in the next election? Will they kill each other over immigration? Is Boehner out?  Is Karl Rove a traitor? Is the Tea Party over/leaving the party/imploding? Is this what is really going on?

Here’s something else to think about. Something that might bother Harry Reid even more than deciding  how to vote on the assault rifle ban.

Harry Reid

Harry has a math problem.  Don’t worry. Keep reading. It’s just arithmetic.

There are 45 Republicans in the Senate. They need 6 more to control the world’s greatest deliberative body.  In  2014, there are 20 Democrats and 13 Republicans up for reelection.  In other words, the Democrats have a lot to lose. 

The Republican in the tightest race last time was Mitch McConnell, Republican leader of the Senate, and he won 53% of the vote. I’m sure it is possible some of the Republicans will have a tough time. 

But let’s look at the Democrats. Seven of the states  with Senate seats up in ’14 were won by Romney in 2012, most by a large margin:

Baucus, Max (D-MT)

Begich, Mark (D-AK)

Hagan, Kay R. (D-NC)

Johnson, Tim (D-SD)

Landrieu, Mary L. (D-LA)

Pryor, Mark L. (D-AR)

Rockefeller, John D., IV (D-WV-Retiring)

Granted some of these  individual senators may be very popular at home, but what if they are pushed to vote on major issues out of step with their states?

Here’s a word problem for Harry: What happens in Montana, where Obama got 41.8% when they are reminded  their Senator is a Democrat? Will they be happy if they find out he is the one  pushing the Obama tax agenda as Chairman of the Finance Committee, that he was instrumental in passing Obamacare?

If seven seats aren’t enough to get you thinking, consider retirements and toss-ups. The rest of the 2014 class of Democratic Senators:

Coons, Christopher A. (D-DE)

Durbin, Richard J. (D-IL)

Franken, Al (D-MN)

Harkin, Tom (D-IA- Retiring)

Kerry, John F. (D-MA)

Lautenberg, Frank R. (D-NJ)

Levin, Carl (D-MI)

Merkley, Jeff (D-OR)

Reed, Jack (D-RI)

Shaheen, Jeanne (D-NH)

Udall, Mark (D-CO)

Udall, Tom (D-NM)

Warner, Mark R. (D-VA)

Levin and Durbin haven’t announced for reelection. Harkin and Rockefeller are retiring. John Kerry’s seat is open. Al Franken won 42% of the vote last time. And Michigan has a Republican governor.

Shaheen won a tight race.  Both Udalls and Warner won easily, but their states were in the toss-up column in 2012 until election day.

And when did Delaware become solidly blue? (Since they haven’t had a strong candidate run for a Senate seat since Bill Roth). New  Jersey is usually a safe seat for Democrats, but what if there are two seats open?

Of course, the same thing could have been said of the 2012 election. The Republicans had a huge advantage going in, but managed to lose what should have been some easy seats. But in an off-year election,  in the second term of a President…anything can happen.

When you drill down on the details–do the math–things will need to go very, very smoothly in the next 18 months for Harry Reid to sleep well on election night.

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Fiscal Cliff: How do you like your Sausage?

Will we get a deal by January 1st?

Anyone who has spent five minutes in Washington knows you can’t produce  sausage that fast. Three weeks to produce billions of dollars in budget cuts and tax increases? Come on. Get serious!

Obama and Boehner

The “Fiscal Cliff” bill will be massive. Changes in the tax code are never simple. Cuts in the budget are changes in legislation. The page count will likely run in the thousands. Any chance that will get done in three weeks? Ha! Three months would be a stretch-and that assumes there is a deal.

So the most they will come up with in the next few days is a broad outline: A few big ticket items and a lot of unspecified taxes and spending cuts. And that will be called a deal. Next year will be the real food fight.

So what do you think? Will they get it done? In time?

Please vote in my poll in the left column or leave me a comment!

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Major drama: Is there any way Boehner can change the story line?

What does story have to do with politics? Everything.

Is there any doubt that regardless of what happens on the “fiscal cliff,” the President is going to emerge as the hero? Unless there is a completely unforeseen twist, the Republicans are going down. This is not a political statement. It is a literary judgment.

Story is the way we understand what is going on. Face it, most Americans are busy and unless they are news junkies, they don’t have time to dig into the details.  For the most part, this story has no details. The White House and the Democrats are controlling the story line: the rich are to blame. We have to make the rich pay what they owe to fix the fiscal mess. Everyone in the party is repeating this story. The President holds campaign rallies to hammer it.

Speaker Boehner is needs a more compelling story, needs some visuals, and must have party support, or the Republicans are going down. And it won’t be in a blaze of glory.

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Convention Red White and Blues: Bob: “Get me out of here. I see Zombies.”

Jack found Bob at the Hub over on Franklin Street.  It was dark inside, but he could see him in his lime green polo shirt and jeans. His head was on the bar. Not leaning on his elbow, but actually on the edge of the bar.

Jack eased toward him quietly from behind and was surprised to see his eyes open, trained on the small tv set  hanging from the corner of the bar.  “Jeez Bob, I thought you were asleep. Are you okay?”

Bob sat up. No hello. “Of course.” He drew his drink close and looked at it fondly.

“Why aren’t you at the Forum?” Jack looked up at the tv. “They aren’t even showing the convention.”

“Duh.” Bob took a sip. “I couldn’t take it anymore. I know M. C. sent us down here to cover the convention, but. . . ” he shook his head, unable to go on.

“Are you crazy? Haven’t you heard the speeches? Even if you don’t agree with everything, I mean, I thought you were a professional.”

Bob squinted at Jack. “You just got here, right?” He took another gulp. “I went down there the first day, I was hanging around, you know, where they were doing those cable shows. I tried to watch. I was there an hour or two. I swear to God, Jack, they were interviewing corpses. Zombie politicals. And they all said the same thing. Over and over. I watched the producers. They came towards me. They started grabbing up people in the bar, making them talk on camera. I had to get out of there.”

The bartender came over and Jack got an iced tea.

“Bob, do you think maybe you got a hold of some bad fire water?”

“No way. But wait. It got worse. I went to the convention Tuesday night. I know a guy who got me some credentials. . .”

“Really—that’s great. Why didn’t you write something about it for the blog?”

“Maybe I will, when I recover.”

“What happened?  Did somebody hit you or something?

“Almost. There was a sea of red, white and blue.  And I couldn’t find the bar. Then, more zombies saying the same thing, more or less.  The great state of something or other casts most of their votes. Bla Bla . . . Some of them had on red cowboy hats.”

“Come on, is this your first convention? That’s what they always do.”

The bartender came back and asked if I wanted to order breakfast. Not sure what he meant by that, so I said no.

“No, it’s not my first convention. But you know how we block out certain things. Like you remember what it’s like to go over to Rehoboth and swim in the ocean. You remember the hot sun and the cool water lapping against you as you walk out to the surf. But you forget completely how the waves crash down on you, knock you over, spin cycle you with sand and grit and small shells and get up your nose. I went home and burned every red, white and blue article of clothing. This shirt is all I have left.”

“No you didn’t. You can’t burn things in a hotel room.”

“Okay, true, but I got rid of it.”

“So you didn’t watch any of the speeches? Seriously?”

“I thought you were going to write that part.”

“Great. I thought maybe, since you were here, that you were. What happened to your cell phone, anyway?”

“Good question. How did you find me, by the way?”

“Easy. Asked the concierge for a list of dives. This was the first one he mentioned.”

Bob waved at the bartender  and pointed to his glass. “By the way, I started a tab.”

The bartender slid his drink in front of him. “Here you go, Jack. Is that Abbott with one t or two?”

Obviously a complete waste of money to fly these characters to Tampa. Please help us by voting in the poll, so we have some kind of convention coverage.

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Filed under 2012 Election, campaign tactics

Romney Campaign Strategy REVEALED by Jack Abbott

Looking at the race with a novelist’s eye has a certain advantage:  I can make things up. I’m going to share something I found in a stack of Jack Abbott’s papers. Jack is the main character and voice of Spin Doctor. Apparently, he just can’t stop spinning. I had no idea he was involved with the Romney campaign, although I wouldn’t be surprised to find out that he has been trying to advise the Obama campaign, too. Will they listen to him?  Take a look at his plan:

Game Plan for Victory

Like a horse race, you have been pacing Obama, drawing close in the polls, staying on his heels, and even nosing ahead sometimes. Now you are rounding the far end of the track, preparing for the homestretch, but not quite there. You don’t have to break out, but you have to gather strength. Don’t waste this time and don’t lose momentum. Here’s what you need to do: 

Get Boehner to do something with the House

I don’t have to tell you how much the American people hate Congress. If the House can’t get their act together—get on the same page with you— they are going to drag you down. So get Boehner to hammer the Democrats on key issues over the next few weeks. See if you can draw blood from the Democrats in tight races on these key issues:
Week of July 9th  —  Health care votes

Week of July 16th  —  Defense spending

Week of July 23rd  — Regulatory reform
Week of July 30th —  Tax reform

And please, not just the usual boring talking heads and men screaming at each other on the House floor. We need visuals, some story, and some drama. A dog and pony show. Whatever. Get creative and make it compelling.

Foreign policy cred:  On July 24, head out to the VFW convention in Reno, NV. Friendly audience, perfect venue. Get some visuals with those guys. Advance should be able to put together a lunch or maybe drop by their “health fair” to show your compassionate side and your concern for protecting their benefits. Then, a serious, scathing speech. I don’t care what you say, but figure out a way to look mad and like a statesman at the same time.

Follow that up with a foreign trip. Yes, of course you can drop by the Olympics. Great way to remind everyone how you saved our Olympic ass a few years ago.  I know some of your folks are going to say, ‘Jack are you nuts? Leave the country in the heat of the campaign?’ Trust me, the people you will need in November are turning off the campaign in early August.  

Here’s what I have in mind. Think Michael Deaver. “Morning in America” visuals: Romney shaking hands with heads of state (Please, no bowing). You may be able to dominate the news, mainly because the press will watch you like a great blue heron looking for softshells, hoping you screw up and say something embarrassing. Instead, you will look like a statesman who can go toe to toe with world leaders. Plus we can use the footage for fall spots.

So shake a few hands in London, then pop over to Israel, hang out with Bibi, Shimon Peres, opposition leader Shelly Yechimovich (Labor) and some Palestinian officials. Have a meeting, a conference on Mideast policy or whatever. Maybe even a fundraiser, to show the depth of your support.Then, if you can get a meeting with Merkel, the only grownup left on the continent, go to Germany. After that, on to— as Rumsfeld would say— New Europe. Specifically, Poland—so you can figuratively moon Putin out of the back window of the plane.

Come back home for more debate prep, to get ready for the convention and the VP announcement. Once you get past the convention, you won’t have much time to cram.  And it isn’t like Obama is going to change his positions or tactics before the debates. Work on your likability.  

I know you have dogs, but consider adopting kittens. Remember, we know you are a nice guy, but a picture is worth a thousand words. I’ll work up something separately on likability.

Naming the VP—timing is everything!
Wait until after the end of the Olympics, August 12th. There will be nothing but dead air in the space between the Olympics and the convention. No news—unless you make some.  So, announce the VP on August 13th or 14th. This will give Rubio two weeks to prepare for the speech of 

his lifetime at the convention.Okay, I’m not going to beat you up over this again. You already know he has led in the NovelPolitics blog’s poll. Of course, I don’t know if you found something on him. And there are a lot of great choices. But, just think of the visuals of Rubio debating Biden. If you want to pick someone else, I can’t stop you. Regardless, you will dominate the news cycle for at least three or four days. Maybe the full two weeks. It’s all about planning—as long as Egypt doesn’t decide to dismantle the pyramids, or Iran doesn’t misbehave. Not to give them any ideas.  
That takes you up to the convention. After that, how about another bus trip? Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio?  I’ll get that part to you in a few weeks.
On reading this, I have to apologize. I don’t think Jack came up with this plan at all. It looks like he pulled it out of various news stories and blogs, and it is the actual plan of the Romney campaign.

Unless. . .

No, that’s just not possible. . .  is it?

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Filed under 2012 Election, campaign tactics