Tag Archives: Obama

WARNING: 2014 MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO YOUR HEALTH

2014 Predictions from NovelPolitics

Sometime in the Spring, or maybe as early as the State of the Union, or maybe five minutes from now, the Obama Administration is going to come out with a new narrative. So buckle up, Republicans. Democrats, you can breathe now.

We found out what is in store for 2014 when we overheard Jack and Bob this morning, in their usual spot in the back bar of the Old Ebbitt Grill.Old Ebbitt

Jack slid his bar stool back and climbed on. Bob was already there, of course, and pointed at the bartender, then Jack.

Without a word, the bartender brought over two egg nogs. “On me,” he said

Jack thanked him. Bob nodded, with a weak smile. “What the hell is that?” he whispered to Jack.

“Egg nog. It’s good for you.” Jack took a sip. “Evan’s not coming. He said he was out late.”

“Evan?”

“I know. I don’t believe him either. He seems so worried about the coming year, you know? What do you think will happen, Bob?”

“You aren’t serious. Surely the Spin Doctor knows. Surely you can read this like a slow pitch curve ball.”

“Okay. Here’s the Obama spin: “The economy is looking stronger than ever. The patient was gravely ill, curled up in a ball, unconscious under the front porch when the Obama administration took over. After a strong dose of shovel ready projects, and binge spending, finally the eyes are open. Look, the unemployment rate is down to 7%. Wow. Bet it goes into the sixes before the election.”

“Now, imagine Beyonce singing that.” Bob took a sip of his scotch and drained the glass.

Beyonce

“Exactly. Nobody look at that swelling non-participation in the economy—which puts the unemployment rate closer to 10 percent. Or the number of folks on food stamps…”

“Yeah, yeah. Whatever. Bla bla bla.”

“Agreed. But what about Obamacare? No way to spin that.”

Bob blinked. He watched the bartender at the other end of the bar and quickly poured his egg nog into Jack’s glass. Then he waved the bartender and waggled his scotch glass. “Listen.” He said to Jack. “Pay attention…Obamacare is really going to work. Look at all the people who signed up. Wow. And don’t worry–all of the mandates are going to be delayed. It won’t be so strong. Put it in some cocoa, or maybe a fruitcake, like brandy, if you don’t like it straight. Over time, you will get used to it. And besides, don’t you care about people? Do you want people to be sick?”

oprah

The bartender put a fresh scotch in front of him. He smiled and went on. “Now, imagine Matt Damon and George Clooney lecturing you about that. Oprah agrees. And, Beyonce is singing in the background.”

Jack squinted at him, slowly nodded and sipped the egg nog.

“See, you are already forgetting that you used to have a policy you liked, that children were covered under a special policy, that the poor had Medicaid and the elderly had Medicare.”

Jack shrugged. “Yeah, yeah. Whatever. What about the Republicans? They have a lot of other issues.”

“Sure. But don’t forget, the press is busy squirting gasoline on the bonfire of Republican disunity to stop them from making some of these rather obvious points.”

Jack frowned. “I’ll give it a try. The message of Benghazi, that an inept administration with a low priority on national security and security in general screwed up royally then covered up. Yes. Covered up the mess before the election. Cover up Cover up Cover up. I said it.”

“Aha. Yes. But did you overstep? Where’s the smoking gun?”

Jack shook his head. “Nice try. What about the IRS? How the IRS has been used as a tool to silence opponents of the administration. How the press accepts the bromides of the regime that both sides were scrutinized without blinking. How this scrutiny continues…”

“Oh sure. I know it reeks of Nixon but hey, they won’t get that far with it because the Democrats will come back with what they like to call the wingnut mocking gambit.”

“Huh?”

“Sure. Right now, they are scouring the countryside for a fringe Republican who will make an inflammatory comment about women. Rape, if at all possible. So they can push the buttons of the legions of young women who vote on one issue. They will find someone to mock, and the mocking will spread to the rest of the party. Some Republicans will disavow, some will try to explain, but meanwhile, everybody stops talking about Obamacare and Benghazi.”

Jack sighed. “I have to admit–it has a familiar ring to it. So, will the Republicans be able to take the Senate? What is your call?”

“Hey, don’t ask me what the people are going to do. Politicians I can figure out. The people? We will have to wait and see.”

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Filed under 2014 election, Senate, Spin Doctor, White House

Washington is NOT BROKEN

Old EbbittThree characters  from my novel Spin Doctor, Bob, Jack and Evan met it the backroom bar at the Old Ebbitt earlier today. The TV was tuned to the Sunday morning shows, Meet the Press, to be exact:

“…Washington is broken…”

Evan shook his head. “ This is so wrong.”

Bob put down his glass. “What are you talking about? Did they run out of bar snacks?”

Evan nodded at the TV. “No. Washington is broken. Didn’t you hear?”

“Bull…” Bob stopped himself, looked around and went on in a softer voice: “Washington is not broken. Washington is working perfectly.”

Jack leaned in. “Um. Bob. Have you been out of town? The Sequester? Hello, hello? Earth to Bob.”

Bob took a sip. “Funny. Yes, I know.” He drained the glass and waved to the bartender. “What amazes me is that nobody has read the damn Constitution. Nobody has read James Madison. Washington isn’t supposed to make fast laws. Not supposed to make policy like cars coming off the assembly line …”

Jack and Evan looked at each other. Jack lifted his beer, tasted it and eyed Bob. “Come on. We aren’t supposed to have gridlock.”

“Oh really? Why do you think we have gridlock? You know, you guys scare me sometimes. We have all these newbies that come to Washington, but you two live here. You are supposed to be pros.”

Evan and Jack stared at him in silence.

“Let me explain to you. We have the President. He thinks he has a mandate. He believes in whatever he is saying and is trying to get his way. He’s gone in three and a half years, with a little time at the end, maybe one to two years where his power will leak out like Huck Finn’s bag of cornmeal with a hole in it.’

The bartender slid a glass in front of him, he sipped, and went on: “So then, you have the House. It turns out they just got elected t00. Every one of them, in each little Podunk district. And guess what? They are already running for reelection. They don’t have time to make friends or eat lunch. The new ones are trying to learn while looking like they know everything, when they don’t actually know the difference between GSA and GAO. They don’t know who they can trust so they trust nobody. “

Another sip. Bob nodded at Evan. “And then there’s the Senate. They are there six years, so they get to know each other. Some of them even have friends who in the other party.”

Evan straightened up and faked a yawn. “Bob, thanks for the civics lesson but what the hell does this have to do with anything? How does that have to do with the Sequester?”

“Okay, don’t get me wrong, I know the Sequester sucks as a law. But it is where we are. There is no consensus. It is the job of the House to reflect their constituency and to throw themselves in front of a policy they think their folks will hate—raising taxes. The President’s job is to push his agenda. He’s doing that. And the Senate, they are supposed to be reflective and look at the big picture, the precedents, the long term effect. Most of them have been there a few years, so they should know a little history, know how things work. And if something is especially bad, they have the filibuster.”

Jack leaned in: “That’s nice Bob. You are basically saying you think gridlock is okay.”

“No I’m saying there is gridlock because there is no consensus. Nothing wrong with the system. Remember, the alternative to gridlock is to just go along with everything.”

Evan shook his head again. “What about national security? If we can’t get this resolved, I mean, I think we could have a major problem there.”

“So do I. But that isn’t because Washington is broken. It’s because of policy failures. It’s because of inept governing. There is no law we can pass that will protect against bad policy.”

“What’s the answer then,Bob?How is it going to turn out?”

“The polls tell the President he has support. Congress hears from folks back home that they better not capitulate. When those two facts change, either the President’s poll numbers or  the situation in various districts, we will get some motion. Is the economy getting better? Will the cuts really hurt? Will Obama lose credibility by claiming he has to beach aircraft carriers? Will the six Democratic Senators in Romney states who are running  in ’14 feel the love from their state? .  Hard to say.  Meanwhile, let’s get another drink.”

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Filed under Spin Doctor, White House

Hagel: Are we there yet? Or, can you teach a cat to ride a bicycle?

When I first blogged about the Hagel nomination weeks ago, I flagged it as upcoming drama. Now, some of you might be wondering if this movie is ever going to end. I have been working on my next book, Potomac Lights, and this nomination is very distracting. I asked one my characters, Bob Carson, what he thought of the nomination, and as is typical of Bob, mincing no words, he said it was a terrible idea because you “can’t teach a cat to ride a bicycle.” I think he is trying to say that apart from politics and feelings about Israel, Hagel doesn’t seem to have the managerial experience or the temperament to run a huge and complicated agency focused on our safety, with millions of lives at stake.

Bob is a minor character, so you don’t have to take him seriously. But if you like to read about Washington politics with no particular political leaning, you might check out my novel Spin Doctor.

This is not my cat.

This is not my cat.

I digress. Here are some developments since my last post:

Fifteen Senators have written Obama, asking him to withdraw Hagel’s nomination. Since they are all Republican Senators, this is as likely to impact the White  House as would the certain knowledge that it is snowing somewhere in Alaska.

Bob Woodward reported last Sunday that some Democratic Senators have called the White House to ask if they are going to withdraw Hagel. And the White House swears they won’t. Of course, that’s what they all say, right up until they withdraw it.

B’nai B’rith , a liberal leaning “global voice of the Jewish Community” published a statement voicing serious concerns about Hagel.

What we don’t know is whether any Democrat has called  the White House and told them they are not getting their vote. Unless some Democrats break rank, he’s going to be confirmed.

A few days ago,  Sen. Richard Shelby announced he would support the nomination, saying “  He’s probably as good as we’re going to get.” In other words, any choice by this administration is going to preside over the dismantling of Defense and gouging of the DOD Budget. Does it really matter whether it is done in an orderly way? Good question.

That’s bound to be the conclusion of a lot of Senators who might not be thrilled with the nomination. Reality is, there is only so much the minority can do. They have done a very good job of slowing it down and calling attention to it.

Now it is up to the Democrats. They will have to consider if they really want to win this one, whether they will be prepared to take responsibility, to pay the price of having a Hagel at the helm if we face a national defense crisis in the next four years.

They may have another cloture vote this week. It sounds like  they may get enough votes to confirm.

And if he is confirmed, we will soon find out if a cat can ride a bicycle.

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Filed under 2012 Election, Senate, White House

Why did they move up the Hagel Cloture vote?

I’ve scanned several articles to get an idea why they moved up the Hagel cloture vote to this afternoon instead of Friday. So far, I didn’t find the answer, I will make a guess. It appears the Republicans and Democrats have finally found something to agree on: Take Friday off and Leave Town.

OH, no no no, you say. They will be in Session tomorrow.

Yes, but will there be votes? I don’t think so.

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Filed under Senate, White House

The Plot thickens: Cloture vote on Friday?

Harry Reid has called the hand of the Republicans, moved for a cloture vote Friday. A vote for cloture isn’t a vote on the nomination—“an up or down vote”–it’s a vote on whether they should   vote on the nomination.

So Reid is trying to force a vote. But really, what is going on?

The Republicans are messing with Hagel and the White House. Sen. McCain says he won’t support a filibuster, now he’s not so sure. Same thing with Hatch and probably several others. Hagel is stonewalling on providing some financial info and other answers, so they are making him wait. Just to squirt a little gasoline on the fire, a few days ago, Dick Cheney laid out his stark view  that Hagel was chosen so that Obama would “have a Republican that he can use to take the heat for what he plans to do to the Department of Defense.” Ouch. So the GOP is not going to play along, but is going to try to showcase what they will say is the destruction of our national defense.

For Hagel, it has to be humiliating.  Only two votes from your own party? Those who know you best turn their back?

If  Hagel can’t get sixty votes–cloture– on Friday, surely the White House  will have to withdraw the nomination.

If he gets the sixty, he will be confirmed, of course, but he will be missing a chunk out of his hind quarters.

Still time to vote in my poll!

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Hagel Nomination in Trouble?

A rare consensus seems to have formed in Washington: Chuck Hagel was not good in his hearing. Not even a little good. Most of the press reports characterize the questioning as partisan, with Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post snarking that the Republican anger was rooted in Hagel’s abandonment of the GOP. But still, the pundits were not impressed.

So what happens next?

Hagel has promised to provide more information to the committee on his finances and his speeches. Chairman Levin said they wanted to move the nomination next week. That won’t give much time for analysis of the information, of course. Right now, Hagel still has the votes-He only needs a majority and he has roughly 56, including Sen. Cochran. Sen. Graham extracted a promise to hold a hearing on Benghazi before the vote. Who knows what will shake loose in those discussions. Also, if enough time passes, and enough microphones are in place, it is quite possible more Hagel gaffes will take place.  Although the greater likelihood is that he will be gagged, bound, encased in amber, perhaps hidden at the Smithsonian until after the vote, unseen and unheard.

The only question is, if the Republicans try to block the nomination, does he have 60 votes to stop them. And if it comes to that, does the administration want to take on that fight?  Waste political capital on someone who had interviews with Al Jazeera, alienates key donors, who seems inept and, who would be viewed by the world as having weak support in the Congress? How exactly will they spin that? Will he be their token White Male?

At the end of the day, again, the Democrats have the votes. We don’t know if the Republicans will have the stomach for the fight, or whether their calculus will be to let the President have his people and let him be accountable for the consequences.

Given his performance in the hearing, more than anything else, that should alarm the Democrats.

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Filed under Senate, White House

Hagel Hearing: What’s the latest? Hearing delay? Follow the $$$?

Six Senators, five of whom are on the Armed Services Committee, sent  Hagel a letter  demanding more info on certain investments and entities he is associated with, according to WaPo conservative maven Jennifer Rubin.  “If this material is not provided at least 24 hours prior to Thursday’s hearing, it will provide the substantial basis for a delay in any further consideration of your nomination until such disclosure has been made and sufficient time has been taken to review that material.”

In the Senate, this is as close to they come to pulling a knife on someone. It may be  interesting to see what  is revealed by the response to the letter.

Also, Sen Lindsay Graham said he would put a hold on the nomination until Panetta testifies on Benghazi.

The rumbling of discontent comes amid daily testimonials and gushing press assessments that he will likely be confirmed.

Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) has announced support- the first Republican to do so.

Former Armed Services Chairmen Sam Nunn and  John Warner will accompany Hagel at the hearing and introduce him.

A gay former Hagel staffer penned an enthusiastic endorsement op-ed in the Washington Post this week.

If you haven’t had a chance to acquaint yourself with Hagel’s views, you will find the Rubin article useful. 

Will they really delay the hearings? Maybe not, but it seems unlikely to be over in one day. Democrats controlling the committee may remember that they are setting a dangerous precedent if they press for a vote before the facts are in and before the minority is satisfied  The tables may turn in future elections and they may have to take what they are dishing out.

Will they filibuster the nomination if they don’t get answers? If it comes to that, Hagel may withdraw.

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Filed under 2012 Election, White House

Fiscal Cliff: How do you like your Sausage?

Will we get a deal by January 1st?

Anyone who has spent five minutes in Washington knows you can’t produce  sausage that fast. Three weeks to produce billions of dollars in budget cuts and tax increases? Come on. Get serious!

Obama and Boehner

The “Fiscal Cliff” bill will be massive. Changes in the tax code are never simple. Cuts in the budget are changes in legislation. The page count will likely run in the thousands. Any chance that will get done in three weeks? Ha! Three months would be a stretch-and that assumes there is a deal.

So the most they will come up with in the next few days is a broad outline: A few big ticket items and a lot of unspecified taxes and spending cuts. And that will be called a deal. Next year will be the real food fight.

So what do you think? Will they get it done? In time?

Please vote in my poll in the left column or leave me a comment!

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Filed under 2012 Election

Tick Tock: Predictions Please!

We are coming down to the wire. There is still time for a surprise or two. Gallup? Rasmussen? ABC-Washington Post- NYT -CBS … They’re all over the map. But come on, you know you have an opinion. Time to show your cards:

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Filed under 2012 Election, Spin Doctor, White House

The Foreign Policy Debate: What did you think?

See Poll on Left Sidebar

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Filed under 2012 Election, Spin Doctor, White House